Aaron Harp

1. 

   Rachel
   March 4th, 2009 - 19:01

   I agree with your general synopsis. However, the rough part of this “crisis” is that the extravagant lifestyles of “high level management” reap consequences in the “lower levels.” The majority of hospitals in my area are asking their hourly staff to go to a 36 hr work week instead of 40 (luckily I am not at one of these hospitals)…and some salaried works are being paid as 0.9 FTE (Full Time Employee), although they are doing the work of 1.0 FTE. Right now I don’t have kids, or a mortgage, or a house payment…but if I did, 16 hrs less pay/month is significant. Say 16 hrs = $300/month. That could be the amount you put into savings/retirement, it could be the grocery bill. And the people that are affected this way aren’t necessarily the ones that are living above their means to begin with. I’m not offering support for the stimulus (don’t blog about medicare/medicaid/national debt or you will receive a thesis) just a perspective from the bottom up.

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2. 

   Aaron
   March 4th, 2009 - 19:22

   Yep, that’s a very valid point. I do recognize that the people impacted by the current economy have not necessarily directly contributed to its current state. And I’m sure that if I was taking a pay cut or losing my job my perspective would probably be a little different. But my point is that we’re in this predicament because, as a whole, we live more abundantly than we can afford. Yes, greedy people on top are largely responsible, but we are the ones who took the bait.

   I’ve been holding my tongue about anything health care related =)

   Glad to hear from you!

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3. 

   Emmanuel Masson
   March 16th, 2009 - 01:34

   Hi there, just a little word from a French man who stumbled upon your blog and liked it! Thank you for the music by the way…

   My sister in law who is Irish explained to me her point of view recently. The credit crunch generally is very positive for her, she is works in a bank so her job is secure… Her mortgage has never been so low because of the cuts in the interest rates. She has more money to spend on clothes and useless staff because all the shop are having sales (probably before closure…). She strongly believes that the only way to get out this crisis is by spending more, thus borrowing and get the money moving again. So she doesn’t hesitate to borrow more, because everything is going to be alright and the interest rates are very low!

   I am not sure she will be in agreement with your point Aaron! I will not discuss the following heated conversation that followed this very interesting statement; suffice to resume by one of the question I asked her: “How can the solution to a problem, be the cause of the problem?”

   I personally agree that we should live far more within our mean. I will just have to wait to buy my new Takamine guitar, although I absolutely needs it as my 2 other guitars do not make me sound as bad as I am It is just a shame, that some people will suffer more than others, as my other brother is about to lose his job he had for the last 20 years; because the factory he works for doesn’t make enough money for the share holders!

   It would be a good idea to start again as a society and just spend what we have. A simple solution to what is finally a very simple problem.

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4. 

   Frikki
   March 16th, 2009 - 22:15

   A letter to Mr. Bernanke from Keith Fitz-Gerald:

   Dear Dr. Bernanke,

   I’m sorry to hear that you don’t know what to do about the credit crisis. That must be terrifying to you. I can tell you, it is certainly that frightening to the hundreds of millions of Americans who have seen their homes plunge in value and who now are watching their investment portfolios get vaporized.

   Ben, you’re fighting the wrong battle and you have been since Day One, when you took over from your predecessor, Alan Greenspan.

   You’ve been printing money on the assumption that this action will stimulate demand. That’s great in theory, but it’s clearly not working.

   Here’s why.

   Every dollar you print devalues every other dollar in circulation. What’s more, each new dollar you print also stokes inflation, which is why Americans are feeling pinched right now.

   Forget the housing crisis or the consumer confidence statistics that you and elected leaders seem to be so focused on: These are the byproducts of the monetary problems I’m referring to – and aren’t the root cause.

   The credit crisis began because there was too much money available. Not having enough money has never been an issue.

   What is at issue – and what’s causing such pain in global markets at the moment – is that banks and other financial institutions will no longer lend to each other.

   Americans – and, indeed, consumers worldwide – are caught in the middle. That’s why they’re unhappy. Of course consumer confidence is at all time lows, housing is melting down and wages are stagnating. But, again, those are byproducts, and not causal factors.

   Here’s a five-step plan that I believe will help sort this out. It’s simple, but it’s decisive, and that’s what’s needed right now.

   Step 1: Stop printing so much money. Take steps to restrict the monetary supply, including limiting how much “fantasy” currency the credit card companies can create. This is money that’s not backed by anything except the companies that created it. I’m sure you see the irony here, since it’s the companies that created the collateralized debt, the special-investment vehicles (SIVs) and other derivatives that caused the trillion-dollar problem roiling the markets right now.

   Step 2: Create incentives for institutions to lend to each other, a strategy that includes raising interest rates. You could argue, as will many who read this, that this will stifle demand. I’ll concede that this might happen in the short run. But in the long term, this will provide a natural hedge that will selectively weed out those companies that shouldn’t have been in the game in the first place.

   Think of it as a form of “financial Darwinism” and, by all means, talk to Paul Volcker to get his perspective. Many people thought he would kill the economy in the early 1980s when he raised interest rates to the sky to kill inflation, but that didn’t happen. In fact, you could argue that he set the stage for one of the greatest bull markets in history.

   Step 3: Stop socializing debt. The public treasury is not a proxy for handouts, so stop treating it as such. We do not need the current credit crisis fiasco turned into social debt that will burden our country and every American for countless generations in the future.

   The latest surveys reveal that up to 80% of Americans think the financial institutions that got us into this mess should be allowed to fail. So why are you pandering to the politicians who insist on bailing them out? Nobody will bail me out if I fail to make my debt payments anymore than they will assume your personal debts, either.

   The fruit picker in Southern California making $17,500 a year who reportedly “qualified” for a $700,000 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) should receive a “stupidity premium” on his next tax return and the mortgage representatives who handled and processed the paperwork should be prosecuted in criminal court for predatory lending – if not for “credit-rating homicide.”

   Step 4: Let the free-markets work freely. Contrary to the “Chicago school of economics” free-market strategies that you and your entourage profess to employ, the markets really do want you to take active steps to fix this mess.

   Providing more money to stimulate demand presumes that the financial institutions handling it will be healthy enough to do so (or wise enough to deploy it properly – an assumption I find hard to agree with, at this point). Since I can argue that these financial firms are neither healthy nor wise enough to do so, it’s probably a mistake for you to assume that the new money will rescue weak institutions that shouldn’t be in business in the first place.

   If a person is addicted to drugs, and then runs out of the cash they need to finance their habit, they go into withdrawal. You don’t solve that problem by giving them more cash, or more drugs. You do an intervention and send the poor person to rehab.

   Similarly, with an economy that has abused credit the way the United States has, you don’t address withdrawal (the U.S. credit crisis) by firing up the financial printing presses – which is tantamount to a federally sanctioned credit-line extension. Again, it’s time for an intervention that stops consumers from abusing credit.

   Step 5: Tell the American people the truth. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 requires the Fed to promote stable prices. You’ve got a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do so … and to make a difference.

   Let those idiots on Capitol Hill know that their actions are interfering with your ability to do your job. Point out to them what “Everyday Joes” already know, and what you know – that “the emperor has no clothes.”

   This is not a political issue for either party and you need to make that clear when you draw your line in the sand.

   This is a generational crisis. Every single one of us is responsible for the path ahead – but precious few folks besides you are in a position where they can truly make a difference.

   President John F. Kennedy once said that “the hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality.”

   In other words, sir, don’t damn yourself.

   In closing, people do not write books about Captains of Industry who don’t know how to take charge any more than they will write about Fed chairmen who have no clue about how to fix things.

   But history does look back favorably on decisive leaders who act with conviction. You have the chance to play that role right now – regardless of who’s in the White House. And I urge you to grab that chance.

   Best regards,

   Keith Fitz-Gerald
   Investment Director
   Money Morning

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5. 

   Erik Johnson
   March 19th, 2009 - 17:20

   You have no idea of the consequences of what you’re saying. You’re young, probably don’t have any kids, probably have lived a privileged lifestyle and are blithely unaware of the impacts of the crises on poor and the millions of other people who are living on the edge.

   You should contemplate what an economic meltdown would actually mean but I doubt that you will until you’re actually financially invested in the system and have other people to think about besides yourself.

   Virtually every economist of substance that I follow considers the stimulus spending in the US to be moderate and they base it on total GDP. Bank regulation reform is where the debate is, how far are we going to take it and in what form.

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6. 

   Frikki
   March 19th, 2009 - 19:19

   @Erik Johnson

   Right now the U.S. Financial Crisis resembles Japan’s ten years of misery — also known as the lost decade.

   Whatever economist you follow, I suggest you check out the words from top investor and all-time legend Jim Rogers, among other REAL economists with real hands-on experience.

   The consequences are already harsh and there is no escape — not even with socialistic government interaction, which has been proven in the last century to have failed dramatically in other countries.

   Instead, you should look at countries like: South-Korea, Russia and Mexico, who all turned their failing economy around without government bailout models. These countries have shown how to create a strong economy.

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7. 

   William Lawson
   March 30th, 2009 - 14:34

   Well said!

   Those who argue that “we” have no choice but to somehow salvage an unsustainable way of life are absolutely right. But it is really only “they” who lack a choice in the matter…until they begin to see otherwise. But “we” (not they) can do whatever “we” like.

   It’s very much like the Flat World mantra: “Don’t go near the edge or you’ll fall off.” Who does that apply to? Only those who believe it. All others are free to ’sail’ around an ‘edge-less’ world . Put another way: “An empty closet can ‘house’ any monster you care to imagine…until you open it.”

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8. 

   Gleb Piatikow
   January 19th, 2010 - 17:37

   I was born in Ukraine, former Soviet Union, in 1982. And I have to admit:

   “(…) the old times and ways were better for the soul.”

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9. 

   pompy
   January 30th, 2010 - 05:57

   Great suggestion..
   we must be prepared for the worst situation! Yes one thing is true – even in worst situation our elders were much more happier than what we are now!! One jeans which we get once a year would make us much more happy compared to N no of jeans which we were now…

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10. 

    munir ardi
    March 20th, 2010 - 03:30

    I live in Indonesia and We have the worst situation for along time but our government make a good step to overcome tis problem

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11. 

    Bruce
    May 19th, 2010 - 08:24

    I live in Indonesia and We have the worst situation for along time but our government make a good step to overcome tis problem

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